A quick introduction:
Hello, I'm Smada and I'm just another guy. You can find me on twitter dot com @smada_bb where I have fantasy baseball related tweets and pretend to know what I'm talking about. I currently only play in 1 league, a 30 team dynasty, but am planning bigger things for 2018.
Value picks and reaches vs. Fantrax ADP:
Fantrax recently released their early ADP and I thought it would be a good exercise to compare the ADPs to the picks in the 15 Team Crab Army Mock Draft.
Settings - 15 team, 40 man roster (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, 2 UTL, 15 P, 10 Bench)
Due to Fantrax ADP not running as deep as the draft, I limited the two lists to the first 290 picks.
Top 25 "Steals" vs. Fantrax ADP:
Pitching fell in this draft. Three of the four top tier SP appear here, along with two of the top RP. There are also a few SS listed.
Gio Gonzalez is pre-ranked pretty low on Couch Managers but still got passed over for a while after that. I know his 2017 line is unsustainable, but he should probably be going before SP with little track record or questionable playing time. There is some talk of Ken Giles getting replaced as closer which could be reflected here.
Given that pitchers fell and SS seems a tad overrated on Fantrax, I'd say the biggest outlier and "steal" of this draft was Josh Donaldson.
Top 25 "Reaches" vs. Fantrax ADP:
Seems to be a fair bit of one-dimensional players on the "reach" list. But I'd say a lot of these are great buying opportunities.
Whit Merrifield going in the early 90's seems late. Adrian Beltre at ADP 179 is much later than I've seen him go in most mocks. Evan Gattis is said to have the DH role in 2018 and could return huge value even at pick 165, let alone at an ADP of 227. Gleyber Torres went early and with an ADP in the mid 300's doesn't seem like hot a commodity on Fantrax.
As for the actual "reach" of the draft, the top spot gets it. Justin Turner at 37th overall is crazy.
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