A quick introduction:
Hello, I'm Smada and I'm just another guy. You can find me on twitter dot com @smada_bb where I have fantasy baseball related tweets and pretend to know what I'm talking about. I currently only play in 1 league, a 30 team dynasty, but am planning bigger things for 2018.How I got in:
I happened to be looking at Twitter at the right time (always) and saw Ralph Lifshitz (@ProspectJesus) of the Razzball Prospect Podcast advertising a couple open spots in a 15 team Crab Army mock draft. I clicked on the link about as fast as I could and typed in the password "crabshit". That's it, I was mocking with Ralph, the voice of someone I listen to on the way to work on Mondays! As the draft began, I realized I didn't want to make a fool of myself, so I did the opposite and started logging picks with blurbs on Twitter. If anything, writing the blurbs made myself justify each pick. I tried to hold myself accountable and not just take the player at the top of the rankings, or the sexiest name as an out to making tough draft decisions.Now onto the draft:
Settings - 15 team, 40 man roster (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, 2 UTL, 15 P, 10 Bench)
Each non-bolded blurb below is the tweet I made for each pick. All text in bold are my thoughts post-draft. They include hindsight comments on my own team as well as highlighting some players drafted in each round.
1st round:
(2) - Jose Altuve
Excited to checkoff some speed in the 1st round while not sacrificing power. That plus plus plus BA is the cornerstone though. W/ power available later in draft it often comes w/ serious BA downside. Easy pick over Goldy for me.
I would've rather had Mike Trout, but we can't always get what we want. I mentioned being excited about getting speed in the 1st round. When you do, it makes for some easier decisions later in the draft.
Favorite pick in this round: Charlie Blackmon (7) by TeXXXasRangers - I'd draft him as high as 4th overall. He can regress a little in all 5 categories and still return value. Gotta love Colorado.
2nd round:
(29) - Corey Kluber
Surprised to find the last of the top tier SP still around this late, making it easy to pull the trigger. Was slightly bummed to see Gary Sanchez taken a pick before, definitely love the value in a 2-C league.
Early SP fell considerably in this draft. First off the board was Kershaw (15), then Scherzer (17), Sale (26) and my pick, Kluber (29). After doing a few mocks, I'd like to have one of these guys on my team, preferably whichever comes cheapest.
Favorite pick in this round: Chis Sale (26) by bluejays.mike - Insane that Sale fell this far. I've mentioned this before, but I believe Sale has a strong argument for being the first SP drafted. Honorable mention to @LanceBrozdow for Gary Sanchez (28). I'm pulling the trigger on Sanchez as early as 20th overall in a 2 catcher league.
3rd round:
(32) - Brian Dozier
Yes, I just filled my MI spot in 3rd round. However, I LOVE Dozier. Consistent, 30+ HR, 15 SB, .265 BA. Altuve + Dozier bring 55 HR, 45 SB, .300 BA from 2B & MI slots. Also considered Hoskins, Donaldson, Edwin, Abreu & Andrus here.
Justin Turner went 36th overall in this draft and that's madness. I like Turner a lot, but he was taken before Josh Donaldson who dropped all the way to the 41st pick. Hoskins went 38th overall to Rob in this draft (for those who were part of that debate) and got 2 down-votes. I don't think it's a bad pick.
Favorite pick in this round: Josh Donaldson (41) by drfleurent - Haven't seen him go later than 29th in the 4 other mocks I've done.
Here are the first 3 rounds of the draft:
Favorite first 3 picks: I'm not going to lie and say I don't like my own first 3 picks the most. I'm just another dude that plays fantasy baseball, but I don't care who you are, if you don't think your own first 3 picks in the draft are the best of the group, you've massively screwed up.
Runner up favorite first 3 picks: If I had to start with one of these teams other than my own, it would be MLB Memes with Votto, Scherzer and Bregman.
Least favorite first 3 picks: bluejays.mike took Harper, Sale & Strasburg with his first 3 picks. Individually I get all three of these, but together I'm left scratching my head. Two players with injury history and two SP in first three is too much risk for me. Funny that I dislike the team with what I think to be the steal of the draft thus far (Sale).
4th round:
(59) - Jacob deGrom
For the 2nd time in 4 rounds a high-end SP fell past his ADP (38) & into my lap. deGrom is not usually a SP I'd target, but I like him ALOT more than the bats available around this pick.
Still amazed at how far deGrom fell. Before I made the pick I searched Twitter to make sure he hadn't gotten injured. A good example of changing your game plan on the fly. I certainly did not go into the draft hoping to get two SP in first four rounds.
Favorite pick in this round: Elvis Andrus (52) by Ralph L - I have him projected for 15/95/80/23/.300 and that alone put him at 32nd overall in my early rankings. Either my rankings are crap or Andrus is a steal. I'm going with both.
5th round:
(62) - Buster Posey
Posey gets a huge value increase in 2 C leagues given 90% of the catcher pool is literal 💩. High BA floor & consistent performance. Other options that I passed over: Domingo, K Davis, Cutch & Kenley.
I made a distinct choice in this round to value positional scarcity over a team need of HR. In hindsight I probably would have went Khris Davis (63) here given that catchers didn't end up being pushed up the draft board to the degree I anticipated.
In the 5th round, 9 out of the 15 picks were outfielders. They went in this order:
Khris Davis (63), Billy Hamilton (65), A.J. Pollack (66), Christian Yelich (68), Domingo Santana (70), Tommy Pham (71), Yoenis Cespedes (72), Andrew McCutchen (74)
Favorite pick in this round: Tommy Pham (71) by drfleurent - I've got a slightly-conservative-to-slightly-optimistic projection on Pham which puts his value around picks 50-55. He should be a great value pick this late.
6th round:
(89) - Chris Taylor
This is certainly considered a reach vs. ADP (114), but I believe in Taylor's breakout last year. With a full season I could easily see 25 HR / 20 SB. I've gone with reliable bats to this point allowing for some risk in an upside pick.
At the time I remember this pick making me feel uncomfortable. I thought Mike Moustakas (86) or Travis Shaw (88) would fall to me and I just missed on them. But now looking back, I feel really good about pulling the trigger on Taylor here. I do believe in him and he fit with my team structure.
Favorite pick in this round: Craig Kimbrel (79) by BarryBaker - Jansen and Kimbrel are the only two RP I fully trust this year. Given the volatility at closer, I'm more than fine with pulling the trigger early on these guys.
7th round:
(92) - Adrian Beltre
Beltre is amazing. Over his last 1,000 PA he's slugged .525... as a 37 & 38 yo. Obvious injury risk here, but the skills are still there. I'll add 3B insurance later.
Team thus far: Posey / Altuve / Dozier / Beltre / Chris Taylor Kluber / deGrom
Seven 3B went in a string of thirteen picks in rounds 6 & 7. They were: Moustakas (86), Shaw (88), Rafael Devers (91), Beltre (92), Kyle Seager (94), Joey Gallo (97) and Jake Lamb (98). I was fine getting any of them aside from Gallo due to his BA drain. At this point in the draft, 14 3B had been taken. The 3B still available were Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez and Evan Longoria. To sum up, 3B is the deepest position this year.
Favorite pick in this round: Jake Lamb (98) by Rob - Lamb was the last of the string of 3B selected and could easily be the most valuable. He could have pulled the trigger early on Mouse or Shaw at (83) but waited for a pretty comparable player a round later.
These are the teams after 7 rounds, just over 100 total picks:
Favorite first 7 picks: Excluding my own team, I'm going with @LanceBrozdow's squad. He's got the great power bats, the top catcher and has addressed speed. Godley as the team's #1 SP wouldn't be my top choice, but that could be workable with adding depth in the next couple rounds.
At this point, I don't remember who was on autodraft, so not going to pick a least favorite moving forward.
8th round:
(119) - Edwin Diaz
Despite early season HR issues & pretty high BB rate last year, Diaz looks like a reliable RP option this year. If I were picking in the middle of the draft instead of the end, I may have waited. But didn't want to miss out on a run of RP.
Going into the draft there were two things I wanted to make sure I avoided. The first was punting catcher, the next was missing out on two closers. I used two of my first eight picks working towards those goals. It feels like a lot of closer situations are up in the air, but that is just a result of being far from opening day.
Favorite pick in this round: Yasiel Puig (117) by athletics.hank - I was targeting Puig and thought he'd make it to my 9th pick at 122, turned out he didn't even make it to my 8th pick at 119.
9th round:
(122) - Justin Smoak
Do I think Justin Smoak will repeat his 2017 season? No. Do I think he'll be significantly better than 2010-2016? Yes. Reasonably attainable line? How bout 30/75/85/0/.260. Not sexy, but perfectly fine in the 9th round. Also considered Josh Bell.
This was my first pick to attempt to fix my low-power squad. Ronald Acuna (121) was taken a pick before mine. I'm cool with this spot for Acuna if you believe in him putting up 15 HR, 25 SB and a .265 BA.
Favorite pick in this round: Nick Castellanos (129) by Ralph L - This is a 3B that could easily jump into the next tier and was picked up two rounds later. He's also got dual eligibility at OF, which is nice.
10th round:
(149) - Kyle Schwarber
Continued to grab "cheap" power w/ Schwarber. After a horrendous 1st half, his triple slash in the 2nd half was .253/.335/.559 w/ 17 HR in 209 PA. Nothing really changed in his profile since before last year when his ADP was 67th overall.
Between my 9th and 10th round picks, seven RP went off the board, with 14 taken in total. Glad I pulled the trigger on one in the 8th round.
Favorite pick in this round: Masahiro Tanaka (145) by thejakehall - I wasn't the only one to like this pick as it got three up-votes. Tanaka had the 8th best K/BB of qualified SPs last year. HR rate should come down. I want Tanaka this year.
11th round:
(152) - Raisel Iglesias
This is where I really have to start making big team decisions. Take 3rd SP? 2nd C? Fill SS? 3rd OF? In the end I grabbed my 2nd reliable closer to pair w/ Edwin Diaz. Trade rumors for Iglesias, but thankfully it's the Twins.
Box checked with my second closer, thankfully there was one I still sort of liked after the run over the last 30 picks. Padres took Evan Gattis (165) and Brian McCann (166) together at the wheel. Gattis looks like he'll start the year as the full time DH which could return a huge profit with his C eligibility.
Favorite pick in this round: Charlie Morton (151) by RotoWear - Other than making awesome shirts, RotoWear made a solid pick here with taking Morton as his 3rd SP. It's a move I wish I had the opportunity to make.
12th round:
(179) - Brad Peacock
This is my 3rd SP, pairing him w/ Kluber & deGrom. This pick was the 44th SP off the board, part of me wishes I would have locked up a slightly better #3 SP. However, Peacock made huge strides this year w/ just under 11 K/9 over 132 IP.
As I mention above, wish I had a better 3rd SP, but having one of the best SP duos mitigates the pain.
Favorite pick in this round: Nomar Mazara (170) by drfleurent - He's only 23 and in his 2nd year he hit more fly balls, had an increased hard hit rate and increased his walk rate. Steamer is projecting for improvement across the board. I'd love to have shares of Mazara this year.
13th round:
(182) - Marwin Gonzalez
I drafted Marwin to fill in as my SS for now, but he also qualifies at 1B, 2B & OF allowing me to slot him into MI or CI if needed. Took a huge step forward this year, doubling his BB% and posting a 144 wRC+.
Marwin Gonzalez at SS feels like I entered a cheat code into a video game. A run of outfielders went in this round including Brett Gardner (183), Nick Williams (187), Aaron Altherr (189), Carlos Gonzalez (193) and Aaron Hicks (194).
Favorite pick in this round: Brett Gardner (183) by @LanceBrozdow - I was going to pick Aaron Hicks, but when I really started looking at it, a successful season for Hicks is putting up Brett Gardner numbers. Yes, he's young & exciting and has upside, but I'd rather have the guy that's done it.
14th round:
(209) - Willie Calhoun
After pick 200 the chains come off! An opening day starting spot is in question but I'm thinking at least 450 PA isn't out of the question. Steamer projects 110 wRC+ w/ a .277/.329/.488 line. The pick feels early, but could see huge dividends.
I love me some Willie and will be targeting him everywhere this year. I've mentioned it before, but really hoping the hype doesn't carry him past 200 ADP. Another tier of SP went of the board in this round and it's one don't particularly love. It included: Chase Anderson (197), Kevin Gausman (198), Carlos Rodon (199), Aaron Sanchez (205), Drew Pomeranz (208) and Eduardo Rodriguez (210).
Favorite pick in this round: Zack Cozart (198) by drfleurent - Consensus feels really low on the free agent (now with the Angels) who put up a huge year. Seems to be somewhat supported by a new approach, most evident in his 5 percentage point jump in BB rate.
This round put us over the 200 pick marker. Here are the teams through 14 rounds:
Favorite first 14 picks: This is going to be based on the "shape" of the teams. Are there major holes that still need to be filled? Categories that are lacking? My own team excluded from consideration, the most well rounded team to this point is MLB Memes. They are 4 SP deep with a great 1/2 punch, they've started to address both C and RP, and they've got a great mix of upside, floor and rebound players.
15 round:
(212) - Dinelson Lamet
Another high risk pick for my 4th SP. Lamet put up just under an 11 K/9 but had some HR & BB issues. If he can make some improvements next year, it's another pick that could have big returns. SP thus far: Kluber / deGrom / Peacock / Lamet
Willie Calhoun (209) woke up the rookie reaches with Gleyber Torres (211), Francisco Mejia (214) and Michael Kopech (218) all going in round 15.
Favorite pick in this round: A lot to like out of this round with Mike Clevinger (213) , Kopech and a late Evan Longoria (219), but I'll go with Austin Barnes (222) by BarryBaker - He played near full time during the Dodgers playoff run and I think he'll get the majority of the PA in 2018. Put up a 142 wRC+ in 262 PA last year.
16th round:
(239) - Mike Zunino
At this point, the C pool was about to turn into a barren wasteland, so it was time to pull the trigger on a C2. I don't love Zunino, but for a C2 you could definitely do a lot worse. 25 HR in 450 PA is repeatable, but expecting more of a .230 BA.
I had the choice between Zunino and Wellington Castillo (240). I made the wrong choice. In my slight defense, Castillo hadn't signed with the White Sox yet. Yadier Molina (223), Jonathan Lucroy (227) and Yasmani Grandal (235) all came off the board prior to my pick.
Favorite pick in this round: Blake Snell (232) by Ralph L - I have a share of Snell in a dynasty league and he gave me fits last year. But toward the end of the year he showed something we'd never seen out of him before, control. If he can suppress the base-on-balls he's got the stuff to work his way into the top 30 SP.
17th round:
(242) - Gio Gonzalez
After drafting Peacock and Lamet, Gio seemed like a great veteran complement. In 7 of last 8 years he's reached 175 IP while having >8 K/9. Sure he's due for some serious ERA regression, but for a 5th SP in a 15 team league, I'll take a 4.25 ERA.
Gio ended up being the largest surplus value vs. Fantrax ADP in the draft (post). Ervin Santana (234) and Sean Manaea (241) were taken right before him.
Favorite pick in this round: Blake Treinen (245) by bluejays.mike - I think he's got a solid shot at remaining the closer role all season. At this point in the draft Treinen was the last real closer I'd feel comfortable betting on.
18th round:
(269) - Kole Calhoun
He's going to get everyday ABs & I think he's better than the .244 BA he put up last year. OF squad is the weak part of my lineup, but I'd rather it be there where I can draft upside backups instead of waiting to fill two catcher spots.
The more I think about Calhoun, the more I like him. He played injured early in the season and if his rebound potential presents a solid opportunity for a return on investment.
Nine SP went in a row this round: Lucas Giolito (257), Patrick Corbin (258), Mike Foltynewicz (259), Julio Tehran (260), Tanner
Four OF also went in this round: Keon Broxton (256), Victor Robles (266), Lewis Brinson (267), Stephen Piscotty (268) and Kole Calhoun (269).
Favorite pick in this round: Victor Robles (266) by bluejays.mike - The hype is real.
19th round:
(272) - Joc Pederson
Filling out my OF w/ Joc. A very disappointing season, derailed by multiple injuries, but a redemptive World Series performance. No denying his power. Hoping for health and full time PA against RHP.
Hard to have regret over a 19th round pick, but I'm afraid Joc ends up with 300 mediocre PA next year. He's a player be more interested in if he got a change of scenery. Walker Buehler (285) went in this round. Like him long term, bu think we'll be underwhelmed this year.
Favorite pick in this round: Delino DeShields (274) by athletics.hank - A path to playing time means a path to 10 HR & 30+ SB. Could be the *steal* of the draft. Wow, that was bad. I'm sorry.
20th round:
(299) - Luiz Gohara
Love the upside here for my 6th SP. Gohara put up a 2.75 FIP in his 5 MLB starts and posted >9.5 K/9 at all 4 of his stops in 2017.
Can't believe we're only half way through this draft. 300 picks left!
If Gohara continues to go this late I think I'll have him everywhere. He's got Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir ahead of him in the rotation, so he should be up by April 15th.
Favorite pick in this round: Scott Schebler (286) by MLB Memes - In the 20th round you can have a 30 HR bat. This is the "cheap power" everyone is talking about. The downside is his .233 BA last year, but I think it will rebound a bit in 2018.
Below is the draft board through 20 rounds. Let me know your thoughts in the comments or on twitter @smada_bb.
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